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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
8
17
0
0
0
0
10
3
1
14
13
9
9
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
8
17
20
29
26
75
10
3
1
14
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
19
26
55
0
0
0
0
32
10
3
45
42
29
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
8
16
19
27
25
71
9
3
1
13
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.129 hitrate: 0.311
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.31 0.00 1.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.52 1.97 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.306 Heidke skill score: -0.033
true Heidke skill score: -0.363 true Heidke skill score: -0.055
Kuipers skill score: -0.306 Kuipers skill score: -0.033
true Kuipers skill score: -0.354 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.111 0.000 0.045
threat score:
0.064 0.345 0.021
equitable threat score:
-0.208 0.000 -0.171
equitable threat score:
-0.055 0.037 -0.084
probability of detection:
0.231 0.000 0.111
probability of detection:
0.091 0.763 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.000 0.929
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.824 0.613 0.929
samples: 31 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 29.25 %coverage: 100.00