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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
6
11
0
0
0
0
10
4
0
14
12
7
6
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
6
11
21
31
29
81
10
4
0
14
33
38
35
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
12
24
44
0
0
0
0
40
16
0
56
48
28
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
6
10
20
29
27
76
9
4
0
13
31
36
33
100

hitrate: 0.080 hitrate: 0.311
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.92 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 2.13 0.40
Heidke skill score: -0.380 Heidke skill score: -0.033
true Heidke skill score: -0.406 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.380 Kuipers skill score: -0.033
true Kuipers skill score: -0.419 true Kuipers skill score: -0.058
threat score:
0.095 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.048 0.352 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.209 0.000 -0.202
equitable threat score:
-0.037 0.033 -0.104
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.061 0.816 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.617 1.000
samples: 25 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 23.58 %coverage: 100.00