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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
0
4
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
35
30
101
3
1
0
4
39
36
30
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
0
100
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
33
29
96
3
1
0
4
37
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.81 0.13
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.011
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.343 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 -0.035
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.972 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.653 1.000
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00