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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
6
18
0
0
0
0
12
7
3
22
19
12
9
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
6
18
17
24
24
65
12
7
3
22
36
36
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
13
15
45
0
0
0
0
30
18
8
55
48
30
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
5
6
17
16
23
23
62
11
7
3
21
34
34
31
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 0.00 2.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.81 0.67
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.132 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.138 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.233 0.000 0.107
threat score:
0.149 0.312 0.058
equitable threat score:
-0.072 0.000 -0.085
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.031 -0.087
probability of detection:
0.368 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.194 0.667 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.000 0.864
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.631 0.864
samples: 40 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 38.10 %coverage: 100.00