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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
36
35
100
0
1
4
5
29
37
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
34
33
95
0
1
4
5
28
35
37
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.70 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.356 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.012 0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.973 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.640 0.200
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00