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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
36
36
101
0
1
3
4
29
37
39
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
34
34
96
0
1
3
4
28
35
37
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.73 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.353 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.039
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.973 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.644 0.250
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00