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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
2
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
27
35
35
97
0
0
3
3
28
37
40
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
25
25
63
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
38
13
25
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
2
5
26
33
33
92
0
0
3
3
27
35
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 0.00 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.62 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.353 true Kuipers skill score: 0.034
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.031 0.354 0.075
equitable threat score:
0.086 0.000 0.360
equitable threat score:
-0.011 0.013 0.048
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.036 0.946 0.075
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.639 0.000
samples: 8 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 7.62 %coverage: 100.00