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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
3
4
1
0
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
37
37
101
1
0
3
4
28
37
40
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
75
100
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
35
35
96
1
0
3
4
27
35
38
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.73 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.366 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.022 0.037
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.075
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.634 0.250
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00