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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
4
5
1
0
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
37
36
100
1
0
4
5
28
37
40
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
0
80
100
20
0
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
35
34
95
1
0
4
5
27
35
38
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.390
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.70 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.370 0.098
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.054
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.630 0.200
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00