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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
4
8
3
1
4
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
22
55
97
3
1
4
8
23
23
59
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
38
13
50
100
38
13
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
21
52
92
3
1
4
8
22
22
56
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.22 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.224 0.063
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.773 0.500
samples: 8 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 7.62 %coverage: 100.00