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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
9
12
3
0
9
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
23
50
93
3
0
9
12
23
23
59
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
0
75
100
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
22
48
89
3
0
9
11
22
22
56
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.04 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.063
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.079
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.247 0.145
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.036 0.041
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.153
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.753 0.250
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00