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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
6
9
3
0
6
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
23
53
96
3
0
6
9
23
23
59
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
0
67
100
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
22
50
91
3
0
6
9
22
22
56
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.17 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.240 0.097
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.026 0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.102
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.760 0.333
samples: 9 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 8.57 %coverage: 100.00