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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
8
8
23
7
8
8
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
21
42
82
7
8
8
23
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
35
35
100
30
35
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
20
40
78
7
8
8
22
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.83 0.46
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.348
threat score:
0.000 0.233 0.123
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 -0.055
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.724 0.160
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.652
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.744 0.652
samples: 23 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 21.90 %coverage: 100.00