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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
10
26
8
8
10
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
21
40
79
8
8
10
26
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31
31
38
100
31
31
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
20
38
75
8
8
10
25
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.72 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.385
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 -0.044
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.724 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.734 0.615
samples: 26 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 24.76 %coverage: 100.00