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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
8
7
22
7
8
7
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
21
43
83
7
8
7
22
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
36
32
100
32
36
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
20
41
79
7
8
7
21
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.86 0.44
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.075
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.081
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.318
threat score:
0.000 0.231 0.108
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 -0.064
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.724 0.140
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.682
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.747 0.682
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00