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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
12
11
34
11
12
11
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
17
39
71
11
12
11
34
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
32
35
32
100
32
35
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
16
37
68
10
11
10
32
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.324 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.45 0.68
Heidke skill score: -0.015 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.113
Kuipers skill score: -0.015 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.117
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.324
threat score:
0.000 0.205 0.151
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.586 0.220
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.676
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.761 0.676
samples: 34 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 32.38 %coverage: 100.00