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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
12
4
4
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
25
46
93
4
4
4
12
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
24
44
89
4
4
4
11
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.21 0.24
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.258 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.862 0.080
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.731 0.667
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00