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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
4
9
3
2
4
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
27
46
96
3
2
4
9
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
22
44
100
33
22
44
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
26
44
91
3
2
4
9
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.31 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.276 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.931 0.080
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.719 0.556
samples: 9 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 8.57 %coverage: 100.00