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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
3
10
3
4
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
25
47
95
3
4
3
10
26
29
50
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
40
30
100
30
40
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
24
45
90
3
4
3
10
25
28
48
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.28 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.041
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.253 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.862 0.060
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.737 0.700
samples: 10 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 9.52 %coverage: 100.00