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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
14
17
0
0
0
0
4
6
3
13
6
7
17
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
14
17
26
22
27
75
4
6
3
13
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
47
57
0
0
0
0
13
20
10
43
20
23
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
13
16
25
21
26
71
4
6
3
12
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.83 0.00 0.76
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 2.59 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.300 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.329 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.095 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.043 0.268 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.080 0.000 -0.222
equitable threat score:
-0.076 0.021 -0.050
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.176
probability of detection:
0.062 0.759 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.000 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.707 0.769
samples: 30 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00