CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
12
15
0
0
0
0
7
7
3
17
9
8
15
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
12
15
23
21
29
73
7
7
3
17
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
38
47
0
0
0
0
22
22
9
53
28
25
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
11
14
22
20
28
70
7
7
3
16
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.156 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.67 0.00 1.13
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.52 0.39
Heidke skill score: -0.266 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.363 true Heidke skill score: -0.080
Kuipers skill score: -0.266 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.352 true Kuipers skill score: -0.085
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.103
threat score:
0.044 0.259 0.052
equitable threat score:
-0.125 0.000 -0.236
equitable threat score:
-0.064 0.014 -0.081
probability of detection:
0.222 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.062 0.724 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.000 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.712 0.824
samples: 32 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 30.48 %coverage: 100.00