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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
11
14
0
0
0
0
6
7
3
16
8
8
14
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
11
14
24
21
30
75
6
7
3
16
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
37
47
0
0
0
0
20
23
10
53
27
27
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
10
13
23
20
29
71
6
7
3
15
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.00 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 2.59 0.36
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.330 true Heidke skill score: -0.078
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.323 true Kuipers skill score: -0.083
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.045 0.253 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.107 0.000 -0.229
equitable threat score:
-0.057 0.005 -0.074
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.214
probability of detection:
0.062 0.724 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 0.812
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.720 0.812
samples: 30 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00