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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
12
15
0
0
0
0
5
7
3
15
7
8
15
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
12
15
25
21
29
75
5
7
3
15
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
40
50
0
0
0
0
17
23
10
50
23
27
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
11
14
24
20
28
71
5
7
3
14
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.14 0.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.59 0.34
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.316 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.320 true Kuipers skill score: -0.081
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.044 0.253 0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.091 0.000 -0.231
equitable threat score:
-0.064 0.005 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.286 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.062 0.724 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.867 0.720 0.800
samples: 30 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00