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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
10
13
0
0
0
0
4
7
3
14
6
8
13
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
10
13
26
21
31
78
4
7
3
14
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
37
48
0
0
0
0
15
26
11
52
22
30
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
10
12
25
20
30
74
4
7
3
13
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.185 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.17 0.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.69 0.32
Heidke skill score: -0.222 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.267 true Heidke skill score: -0.073
Kuipers skill score: -0.222 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.272 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.118 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.047 0.244 0.055
equitable threat score:
-0.063 0.000 -0.217
equitable threat score:
-0.050 -0.008 -0.058
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.231
probability of detection:
0.062 0.724 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.731 0.786
samples: 27 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 25.71 %coverage: 100.00