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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
14
17
0
0
0
0
7
8
3
18
9
9
17
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
14
17
23
20
27
70
7
8
3
18
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
40
49
0
0
0
0
20
23
9
51
26
26
49
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
13
16
22
19
26
67
7
8
3
17
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.238
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 0.00 1.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 2.41 0.41
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.143
true Heidke skill score: -0.371 true Heidke skill score: -0.097
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.143
true Kuipers skill score: -0.367 true Kuipers skill score: -0.103
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.094
threat score:
0.043 0.253 0.051
equitable threat score:
-0.121 0.000 -0.247
equitable threat score:
-0.076 0.011 -0.088
probability of detection:
0.222 0.000 0.176
probability of detection:
0.062 0.690 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.000 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.714 0.833
samples: 35 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 33.33 %coverage: 100.00