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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
0
0
0
0
2
6
2
10
4
7
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
28
22
38
88
2
6
2
10
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
6
24
41
0
0
0
0
12
35
12
59
24
41
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
27
21
36
84
2
6
2
10
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.235 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 3.03 0.23
Heidke skill score: -0.147 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.100 true Heidke skill score: -0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.147 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.106 true Kuipers skill score: -0.067
threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.054 0.232 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.048 0.000 -0.146
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.033 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.062 0.759 0.045
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.750 0.800
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00