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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
6
9
0
0
0
0
6
6
3
15
8
7
9
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
6
9
24
22
35
81
6
6
3
15
32
29
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
4
25
38
0
0
0
0
25
25
13
63
33
29
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
6
9
23
21
33
77
6
6
3
14
30
28
42
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.12 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.28 2.79 0.34
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.236 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.228 true Kuipers skill score: -0.064
threat score:
0.133 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.051 0.250 0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.083 0.000 -0.171
equitable threat score:
-0.020 -0.006 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.250 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.062 0.759 0.068
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.728 0.800
samples: 24 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 22.86 %coverage: 100.00