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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
5
7
2
14
8
8
4
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
20
31
34
85
5
7
2
14
28
39
38
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
5
10
30
0
0
0
0
25
35
10
70
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
19
30
32
81
5
7
2
13
27
37
36
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.18 0.37
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.014 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.016 true Kuipers skill score: -0.032
threat score:
0.273 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.097 0.333 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.070 0.000 -0.061
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.009 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.375 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.107 0.795 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.635 0.857
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00