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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
0
0
0
0
4
7
2
13
7
8
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
21
31
34
86
4
7
2
13
28
39
38
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
5
11
32
0
0
0
0
21
37
11
68
37
42
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
2
6
20
30
32
82
4
7
2
12
27
37
36
100

hitrate: 0.263 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 0.00 3.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.21 2.21 0.34
Heidke skill score: -0.105 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.004 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.105 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.004 true Kuipers skill score: -0.032
threat score:
0.300 0.000 0.133
threat score:
0.097 0.330 0.041
equitable threat score:
0.101 0.000 -0.060
equitable threat score:
0.048 -0.015 -0.061
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.107 0.795 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.846
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.640 0.846
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00