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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
0
0
0
0
6
8
2
16
9
8
4
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
19
31
34
84
6
8
2
16
28
39
38
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
10
24
0
0
0
0
29
38
10
76
43
38
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
2
5
18
30
32
80
6
8
2
15
27
37
36
100

hitrate: 0.238 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.00 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.15 0.42
Heidke skill score: -0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.014 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.273 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.100 0.337 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.097 0.000 -0.070
equitable threat score:
0.058 -0.003 -0.082
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.107 0.795 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.631 0.875
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00