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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
3
7
0
0
0
0
4
8
2
14
7
9
5
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
3
7
21
30
33
84
4
8
2
14
28
39
38
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
14
33
0
0
0
0
19
38
10
67
33
43
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
3
7
20
29
31
80
4
8
2
13
27
37
36
100

hitrate: 0.238 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.15 0.37
Heidke skill score: -0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.047
Kuipers skill score: -0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.049 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.273 0.000 0.118
threat score:
0.094 0.323 0.040
equitable threat score:
0.077 0.000 -0.098
equitable threat score:
0.038 -0.019 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.107 0.769 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.000 0.857
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.643 0.857
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00