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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
0
0
0
0
4
6
1
11
7
7
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
21
32
31
84
4
6
1
11
28
39
38
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
5
29
48
0
0
0
0
19
29
5
52
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
6
10
20
30
30
80
4
6
1
10
27
37
36
100

hitrate: 0.190 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.43 0.00 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.36 2.15 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.214 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: -0.214 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.214 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: -0.214 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.214 0.000 0.059
threat score:
0.086 0.352 0.021
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.000 -0.200
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.013 -0.068
probability of detection:
0.429 0.000 0.143
probability of detection:
0.107 0.821 0.026
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.000 0.909
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.619 0.909
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00