CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
0
0
0
0
6
3
3
12
7
5
6
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
31
27
30
88
6
3
3
12
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
17
33
0
0
0
0
33
17
17
67
39
28
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
3
6
29
25
28
83
6
3
3
11
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.75 0.33
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.061
true Heidke skill score: -0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.061
true Kuipers skill score: -0.196 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.023 0.290 0.067
equitable threat score:
-0.138 0.000 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.007 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.026 0.844 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.833 0.693 0.750
samples: 18 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.98 %coverage: 100.00