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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
6
12
0
0
0
0
4
12
4
20
8
14
10
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
6
12
30
18
26
74
4
12
4
20
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
6
19
38
0
0
0
0
13
38
13
63
25
44
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
6
11
28
17
25
70
4
11
4
19
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.245
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 2.31 0.56
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: -0.055 true Heidke skill score: -0.102
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: -0.060 true Kuipers skill score: -0.105
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.154
threat score:
0.087 0.205 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.077 0.000 -0.114
equitable threat score:
-0.007 -0.066 -0.062
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.105 0.562 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.757 0.800
samples: 32 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 30.19 %coverage: 100.00