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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
5
11
0
0
0
0
5
2
5
12
9
4
10
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
5
11
29
28
26
83
5
2
5
12
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
9
22
48
0
0
0
0
22
9
22
52
39
17
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
5
10
27
26
25
78
5
2
5
11
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.22 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.59 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.039 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.036 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.294
threat score:
0.089 0.322 0.116
equitable threat score:
-0.026 0.000 -0.018
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.048 0.024
probability of detection:
0.444 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.105 0.875 0.139
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.663 0.583
samples: 23 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 21.70 %coverage: 100.00