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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
4
10
0
0
0
0
5
3
6
14
9
5
10
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
4
10
29
27
26
82
5
3
6
14
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
8
17
42
0
0
0
0
21
13
25
58
38
21
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
4
9
27
25
25
77
5
3
6
13
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 2.56 0.39
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.027 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.267 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.091 0.310 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.000 0.014
equitable threat score:
0.010 0.036 0.032
probability of detection:
0.444 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.105 0.844 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.671 0.571
samples: 24 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 22.64 %coverage: 100.00