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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
13
0
0
0
0
10
4
6
20
15
7
11
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
13
23
25
25
73
10
4
6
20
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
9
15
39
0
0
0
0
30
12
18
61
45
21
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
5
12
22
24
24
69
9
4
6
19
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.340
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 0.00 1.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 2.28 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.077 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.075 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.217 0.000 0.240
threat score:
0.109 0.312 0.120
equitable threat score:
-0.053 0.000 -0.036
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.051 -0.018
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 0.545
probability of detection:
0.132 0.781 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.000 0.700
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.658 0.700
samples: 33 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 31.13 %coverage: 100.00