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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
4
11
0
0
0
0
7
5
7
19
12
7
11
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
4
11
26
25
25
76
7
5
7
19
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
7
13
37
0
0
0
0
23
17
23
63
40
23
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
4
10
25
24
24
72
7
5
7
18
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.92 0.00 1.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.29 2.38 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.278 0.000 0.304
threat score:
0.114 0.301 0.146
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.000 0.002
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.034 0.013
probability of detection:
0.417 0.000 0.636
probability of detection:
0.132 0.781 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.000 0.632
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.545 0.671 0.632
samples: 30 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 28.30 %coverage: 100.00