CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
0
0
0
0
9
3
6
18
9
4
12
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
29
28
24
81
9
3
6
18
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
24
28
0
0
0
0
36
12
24
72
36
16
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
6
7
27
26
23
76
8
3
6
17
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.240 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.78 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 2.53 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.140 Heidke skill score: -0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.373 true Heidke skill score: 0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.140 Kuipers skill score: -0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.336 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.329 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.187 0.000 -0.172
equitable threat score:
-0.059 0.059 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.654 0.667
samples: 25 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 23.58 %coverage: 100.00