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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
0
0
0
0
5
2
4
11
8
2
7
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
30
30
29
89
5
2
4
11
38
32
36
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
0
18
35
0
0
0
0
29
12
24
65
47
12
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
3
6
28
28
27
84
5
2
4
10
36
30
34
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.00 1.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.78 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: -0.037 true Heidke skill score: 0.058
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: -0.035 true Kuipers skill score: 0.060
threat score:
0.273 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.073 0.330 0.093
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.000 -0.056
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.049 0.007
probability of detection:
0.375 0.000 0.571
probability of detection:
0.079 0.938 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.663 0.636
samples: 17 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 16.04 %coverage: 100.00