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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
32
36
35
103
0
1
0
1
33
37
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
50
0
0
50
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
30
34
33
98
0
1
0
1
31
35
33
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.78 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.030 0.346 0.000
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.021 -0.004 -0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.973 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.650 1.000
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00