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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
36
30
99
0
1
5
6
33
37
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
34
29
94
0
1
5
6
31
35
33
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.390
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.68 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.059
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.360 0.139
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.088
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.973 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.167
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00