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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
38
26
103
0
1
1
2
39
39
27
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
36
25
98
0
1
1
2
37
37
26
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.64 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.365 0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.974 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.631 0.500
samples: 2 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 1.90 %coverage: 100.00