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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
7
0
1
6
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
30
37
98
0
1
6
7
31
31
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
86
100
0
14
86
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
35
93
0
1
6
7
30
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.857 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.16 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.786 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.786 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.857
threat score:
0.000 0.303 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.015 0.076
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.140
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.694 0.143
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00