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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
30
38
99
0
1
5
6
31
31
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
36
94
0
1
5
6
30
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.19 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.061
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.116
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.697 0.167
samples: 6 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 5.71 %coverage: 100.00