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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
30
39
100
0
1
4
5
31
31
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
37
95
0
1
4
5
30
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.23 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.033
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.297 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.093
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.200
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00