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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
1
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
30
40
101
0
1
3
4
31
31
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
75
100
0
25
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
38
96
0
1
3
4
30
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.26 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.294 0.068
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.070
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.703 0.250
samples: 4 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 3.81 %coverage: 100.00