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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
0
1
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
31
30
41
102
0
1
2
3
31
31
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
67
100
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
29
39
97
0
1
2
3
30
30
41
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.29 0.07
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.291 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.002 0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.968 0.047
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.706 0.333
samples: 3 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 2.86 %coverage: 100.00