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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
5
0
2
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
28
38
100
0
2
3
5
34
30
41
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
60
100
0
40
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
27
36
95
0
2
3
5
32
29
39
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.33 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.275 0.070
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.008 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.933 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.720 0.400
samples: 5 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 4.76 %coverage: 100.00