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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Precip 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
3
7
0
4
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
26
38
98
0
4
3
7
34
30
41
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
57
43
100
0
57
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
25
36
93
0
4
3
7
32
29
39
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.27 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 0.006
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.867 0.073
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.735 0.571
samples: 7 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 6.67 %coverage: 100.00